SMSworld fragile states index

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SMSworld fragile states index

Postby Srf » Mon May 01, 2017 7:36 pm

Some sperg we can all work on together:

Basically give your country a score of 0-10 (0 lowest, 10 highest) in each of the following categories and post I T T:

Social indicators
Demographic pressures: Pressures deriving from high volume population density relative to food supply and other life-sustaining resources, which make it difficult for governments to protect citizens. Pressures include those stemming from disease, natural disasters, population growth, infant mortality, and environmental hazards. Governmental capacity and will to respond to such pressures are considered in the score.

Refugees and Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs): Pressures linked to population displacement, which can strain public resources and threaten security. This indicator concerns displacement in both directions: those leaving and those entering a state. Measures include the presence of refugee/IDP camps, refugees/IDPs per capita, absorption capacity, relief efforts, and targeted violence/repression.

Group Grievance: Existence of tension and/or violence between groups, which can undermine the state's provision of security. Pressures related to discrimination, ethnic violence, communal violence, sectarian violence, and religious violence are included alongside atrocities committed with impunity against groups singled out by state authorities or dominant groups for persecution or repression, and institutionalized political exclusion.

Human flight and brain drain: Measures related to migration per capita, particularly emigration of the educated population, which often occurs pre- or mid-conflict. Remittances and growth of exile/expatriate communities are also used as measurements.

Economic indicators
Uneven economic development: Group-based inequality, or perceived inequality, in education, jobs, and economic status can create uneven commitments to the social contract within a state. Measurements include group-based poverty and education levels, existence of slums, and fairness of housing and hiring practices.

Poverty and economic decline: Progressive economic decline of the society as a whole (measurements: per capita income, GNP, economic deficit, unemployment, poverty levels, business failures, and inflation) strains a state's ability to provide for its citizens, and can create inter-group friction. Also includes failure of the state to pay salaries of government employees and armed forces, or to meet other financial obligations to its citizens, such as pension payments.

Political indicators
State legitimacy: Corruption and lack of representativeness undermine the social contract, as citizens lose confidence in state institutions and processes. Measurements include corruption or profiteering by ruling elites, resistance to transparency, level of democracy, illicit economy, and protests/demonstrations.

Public services: Disappearance, or lack of, basic state functions indicate a state's inability to perform one of its key roles. Measurements include essential services, such as healthcare, education, sanitation, public transportation, police, and infrastructure. Also examined is the use of the state apparatus for agencies that serve ruling elites, such as security forces, executive staff, central bank, diplomatic service, customs and collection agencies.

Human rights and rule of law: The violation or uneven protection of basic rights mark a failure of a state to execute its primary responsibility. Measurements include press freedom and civil liberties, as well as any widespread abuse of legal, political and social rights for individuals, groups, or cultural institutions (e.g., harassment of the press, politicization of the judiciary, internal use of military for political ends, public repression of political opponents, religious or cultural persecution).

Security apparatus: An emergence of elite or praetorian guards that operate with impunity challenges the security apparatus' monopoly on the use of force, weakening the social contract. Measurements include internal conflict, riots/protests, military coups, rebel activity, and the emergence of state-sponsored or state-supported private militias that terrorize political opponents or civilians seen to be sympathetic to the opposition.

Factionalised elites: A fragmentation of ruling elites and state institutions along group lines undermines public confidence. Measurements include elite power struggles, flawed elections, and use of aggressive nationalistic rhetoric.

External Intervention: Intervention by external actors into a state's affairs signals a state's failure to meet domestic or international obligations. Measurements include level of foreign assistance, presence of peacekeepers or UN missions, foreign military intervention, sanctions, and credit ratings. Intervention by donors, especially if there is a tendency towards over-dependence on foreign aid or peacekeeping missions, is also considered.

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Re: SMSworld fragile states index

Postby Skyenet » Mon May 01, 2017 7:53 pm

Not going to give scores since idk where to peg it, but I'll provide some reasoning instead

  • Social indicators
    • Demographic pressure: Low/Very low
      Varnia is yuge, with fertile land and a low density population
    • Refugees and IDPs: Low/Medium-low
      Historically no IDPs, but has seen an influx of Questerian refugees from t'war.
    • Group grievances: Medium/Medium-low
      Highly discriminatory political system, where elites wield far greater power than the uneducated plebs. Pressures are suppressed, mostly in non-violent ways.
    • Human flight and brain drain:Low
      Probably non-existent, except possibly in terms of leaders of universal suffrage movements seeking exile in Fanta
  • Economic indicators
    • Uneven economic development: Low/Medium
      The political preference for education or skill and the lack of public support for post-secondary education does create an income disparity, but private scholarships, the equivalent of a GI bill and other measures alleviate it.
    • Poverty and economic decline: Low
      Probably largely follows the trends in the global economy, is a developed economy
  • Political indicators
    • State legitimacy: Low
      Corruption is probably at the same level as Scandinavia or the UK, but might be perceived as higher than it actually is.
    • Public services: Low
      Public services are well managed, though probably face similar insolvency issues as many western welfare states
    • Human rights and rule of law: Depends
      What counts as "human rights" in SMS world? Freedom of opinion and assembly exists, but not universal suffrage. Probably no worse than most western european states.
    • Security apparatus: Low
      Despite the prosecution of the more extreme among disruptive elements, the rule of law is stronk.
    • Factionalism elites: Low
      Similar to most western states, there are extreme elements, but with a diverse set of political structures they're largely marginalized
    • External intervention: Low
      Doesn't happen.


Code: Select all

[list][*][b][i]Social indicators[/i][/b]
[list][*][b]Demographic pressure:[/b]
[*][b]Refugees and IDPs:[/b]
[*][b]Group grievances:[/b]
[*][b]Human flight and brain drain:[/b][/list]

[*][b][i]Economic indicators[/i][/b]
[list][*][b]Uneven economic development:[/b]
[*][b]Poverty and economic decline:[/b][/list]

[*][b][i]Political indicators[/i][/b]
[list][*][b]State legitimacy:[/b]
[*][b]Public services:[/b]
[*][b]Human rights and rule of law:[/b]
[*][b]Security apparatus:[/b]
[*][b]Factionalism elites:[/b]
[*][b]External intervention:[/b][/list][/list]

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Re: SMSworld fragile states index

Postby Srf » Mon May 01, 2017 8:53 pm

Sharfland (92: ALERT)

  • Social indicators (30)
    • Demographic pressures: 8
      Sharfland has a rapidly growing young population that is currently situated mainly in the countryside, where population density is low. Several areas have not yet recovered from the severe food insecurity of the war years. Droughts are becoming more common in the central steppe region and resilience of the rural population is being strongly tested. The federal government has minimal capacity to undertake Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) projects. Many rural youth are emigrating to cities, where employment opportunities and housing supplies are becoming strained. Local governments are not willing to invest in wide-scale housing and job creation in the urban centers.
    • Refugees and Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs): 7
      Over 500,000 people remain internally displaced in Sharfland. Some camps, especially those around major cities, have existed for almost twenty years and have become semi-formalised. The government has embarked on efforts to return IDPs to their homes but housing shortages in urban Sharfland hinder efforts. IDPs form camps according to ethnic identity. The country is currently at capacity for effective IDP management and in the event of natural disaster or return to conflict would require extensive external assistance.
      Uirian refugees in eastern Sharfland have mostly returned home following the fall of the Oki Dar Kehmkan during the Sharfic Civil War. The remainder have integrated into Isfara and Poletarsk with relative ease.
    • Group Grievance: 9
      Constituent republics of the Sharfic Federation are demarcated along ethno-linguistic lines and the representatives of many constituent republics are outwardly supremacist. Many citizens of Sharfland feel stronger loyalty to republican or tribal identity than that of Sharfland. In mixed cities race riots and acts of ethnic violence against rival ethnic groups are common. Sports hooliganism is often a cover for communal violence. Local police forces are inadequately equipped or trained to deal with communal violence. In all major cities, public celebration of individuals accused of ethnic cleansing and genocide is commonplace. The Federal Government of Sharfland does little to quell group tensions save for deploying federal Gendarmes to suppress particularly heavy riots.
    • Human flight and brain drain: 6
      Large-scale brain drain/human flight has effectively ceased since the end of the civil war. Occasional flare-ups of communal violence can cause small-scale human flight. The Federal Government of Sharfland has attempted to put measures in place to halt further brain drain such as guaranteeing state jobs for graduates of certain degree programs. A number of countries no longer accept Sharfic nationals as conflict refugees.

  • Economic indicators (16)
    • Uneven economic development: 9
      Constituent republics of Sharfland often specify the superior position of their dominant tribal or ethnic group within their constitutions and legal frameworks. Minority groups and migrant workers are casually discriminated against by a number of levels of society. The ability of a migrant or minority individual to access employment and education is hindered by preferential hiring and admission practices by local employers and officials. Housing is often denied to migrants and minority individuals by landlords in favor of housing a tribal compatriot. Slums exist in a number of Sharfic cities and are overwhelmingly populated by ethnic minorities.
    • Poverty and economic decline: 7
      GDP has risen since the end of the war and the average Sharfic citizen enjoys a higher quality of life than the war years. Established diaspora communities continue to remit money to relatives in Sharfland, increasing their economic resilience. Legislative restrictions on business activity leads to a high rate of business failure. Constituent republics have the ability to set their own rates of taxation and are responsible for the payment of salaries in their own territory. Conscripts enrolled in national armies often go without salaries, especially in remote areas, and are used as a manual labour reserve.
  • Political indicators (46)
    • State legitimacy: 9
      Sharfic citizens directly elect several governmental representatives, who are purposely given duplicate work and tasked with supervising each other's work by federal authorities for the purpose of neutering local politics. Bribery is widespread, with services such as obtaining legal documents impossible without "facilitation payments". Offenders are rarely prosecuted save for extremely egregious cases.
      The Federal Government of Sharfland remains staffed by former combatants of the National Reconciliation Front, who have used the reconstruction process to acquire former state enterprises for token amounts. Allegations of government members pillaging ministry funds for personal use are widespread, undermining public trust. Transparency in Federal elections is minimal.
    • Public services: 6
      Public services were deeply degraded during the war years. Quiberonnais NGO Medecins du Crateé continue to maintain urgent care and emergency facilities in provincial capitals. Recent large-scale investments by Dumani and Questarian consortia have began the process of rehabilitating urban water and sanitation and public transportation infrastructure. Rural areas remain afflicted by severe lack of public services particularly in the areas of healthcare, education and energy. The government has stated its desire to rehabilitate or replace damaged infrastructure as quickly as possible.
      Security forces, particularly those under federal command remain prioritised in state budgets.
    • Human rights and rule of law: 8
      Press freedom remains mediocre. Many press outlets self-censor to escape potential government interference. The Press sector remains poorly regulated and numerous news sources of outspoken ethnic or political loyalty report poor quality and unsourced information. This is an intentional tactic by the federal government to reduce public trust in the press in the event that any unflattering article were to make it to the front page.
      Human rights are in general better observed since the war years, moreso in economic and cultural than political and civil rights. Religious expression is no longer prohibited. Freedom of assembly is applied patchily and police have the ability to disperse gatherings at will. Numerous secret police and state security services are active across Sharfland and frequently arrest and intimidate government critics.
    • Security apparatus: 8
      The monopoly on use of force is not held by any one institution. Constituent republics operate National Armies in a separate chain of command to the Federal Armed Forces, which are supplied with newer and more sophisticated equipment. The Presidential Guard brigade answers directly to the President and has been observed clashing with National Armies. Tribes often host their own retinues parallel to the National Armies, and have been accused of criminal activity such as narcotics trafficking. In more remote areas retinues of minority tribes have clashed with National Armies. A number of different secret police forces exist, with the Bureau of State Security again answering directly to the president. There is considerable rivalry between these institutions and a number of gun and bomb attacks within Vorga, Shiran and Kodonseng have been attributed to infighting between them.
    • Factionalised elites: 9
      Governing members of Constituent Republics often utilise aggressive, ethno-nationalist rhetoric during election periods. Many Republic Representatives remain wartime leaders and display outward loathing to leaders of opposing factions, with only those in the Federal Government safe from verbal attack. The effective dismemberment of government organs among Constituent Republics allows them to be staffed by individuals belonging to the same faction as Republic Representatives. Very little internal pressure prevents Constituent Republics from seceding from Sharfland. Many claim that only the military capability of the Federal Armed Forces prevents disintegration of the Sharfic Federation.
    • External Intervention: 6
      Dumani forces remain on Sharfic soil. The Federal government has leased a number of surplus airbases and barracks to the Dumani military, which conducts peacekeeping patrols in urban and rural areas distant from Vorga. Dumani corporations are involved in a number of Sharfic extractive businesses in what has been described as a predatory relationship.
      Foreign aid funding has largely dried up since the end of the civil war, but around $4 billion is still received annually from Wallasean and Arteran states for reconstruction purposes. Donor states do stipulate certain reforms, particularly in the security sector, in return for aid but this is largely ignored by federal officials.
      Sharfland is unable to meet its debt repayments and is currently in the process of rescheduling its debts. A new agreement will most likely involve closer oversight by donors of Sharfland's finances.

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Re: SMSworld fragile states index

Postby Preston » Sat May 13, 2017 10:58 pm

Social indicators
Demographic pressures: 1
Embrea has had a relatively stable demographic curve for much of its recent history and access to basic services is excellent in both urban and rural areas, mitigating internal movement related demographic issues. Increasing urbanization has caused some concern but the state seems well-equipped to cope with any issues which may arise.

Refugees and Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs): 0
There is no substantial refugee issue within Embrea, however the Ministry of Health considers transient and homeless persons to be "internally displaced" for the purposes of reporting. These communities are small as a per capita unit and factor mainly in large cities, where the government has aggressively pursued a policy of rehabilitation and reintegration.

Group Grievance: 1
While discrimination against Francophone minority populations was historically high, in modernity overt discriminatory acts are rare. The government has taken a firm stance against hate speech and incitement of ethno-cultural strife, though institutional discrimination is still alleged by some Francophone-rights groups. Access to services remains unequal but the government has taken steps to alleviate this issue.

Human flight and brain drain: 3
Following the Christmas Coup last year, an alarming number of intellectuals and university students have left or attempted to leave the country. While the overall population has remained stable, the government has expressed concern for this development and countered alternately with harsh anti-emigration measures and incentives for aggrieved populations.

Economic indicators
Uneven economic development: 2
Despite effort since the 1970s to eliminate discriminatory practices, economic inequality still exists between the country's majority and the Francophone and Zegoran minority groups. Fair housing and hiring are codified into law but discriminatory practices are still occasionally alleged.

Poverty and economic decline: 3
Embrea has been in recession since the Christmas Coup following global uncertainties over the new regime. At present it remains able to provide financial obligations to its citizens and has partially offset losses with subsidies to those hardest hit, but the continued trend gives cause for concern.

Political indicators
State legitimacy: 6
The legislative body of Embrea has been suspended since 1987 with the Crown ruling directly until recently deposed. While autocratic, the Crown enjoyed large levels of support owing to its adept administration of national issues and in contrast to a legislative body which was seen as fractious, corrupt and self-interested. The new regime has not enjoyed wide public support despite initial attempts to legitimise itself through the Crown, and demonstrations have become increasingly frequent as demands for a return to true democracy increase.

Public services: 3
In spite of recent unrest the Embrean state has been largely successful in ensuring that essential public services are provided. Since the Christmas Coup the regime has replaced cabinet-level ministers with its own, largely drawn from a military background.

Human rights and rule of law: 8
Since the Christmas Coup, basic rights have been largely curtailed with restrictions on the press, freedom of speech and assembly rampant. The military has largely supplanted local police forces for routine measures as the country remains under martial law; arrests and forced disappearances of prominent political figures have been reported but remain difficult to verify independently, given the regime's monopolization of the domestic press.

Security apparatus: 8
Following the Christmas Coup the military has operated with impunity as a domestic police force, supplanting civilian agencies and the civil framework of law. Protests and riots have become increasingly common as citizens express concern at these developments.

Factionalised elites: 0
The regime has presented a public image of unity and cohesion in its actions thus far. Any power-struggles which may be ongoing behind the scenes have, as yet, not presented themselves.

External Intervention: 0
Despite initial expressions of concern and threats of sanctions following the Christmas Coup, substantive external pressures have yet to materialize.

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Re: SMSworld fragile states index

Postby Questers » Thu Dec 06, 2018 1:55 pm

  • Social indicators 24
    • Demographic pressure: 7
    • Refugees and IDPs: 8
    • Group grievances: 8
    • Human flight and brain drain: 1

  • Economic indicators 16
    • Uneven economic development: 10
    • Poverty and economic decline: 6

  • Political indicators 27
    • State legitimacy: 8
    • Public services: 5
    • Human rights and rule of law: 5
    • Security apparatus: 3
    • Factionalism elites: 2
    • External intervention: 2
Continent of Dreams - Official Questers Canon Compendium

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